Basic Strategy in Blackjack
Blackjack is one of the most popular casino card games. There are many different rules and variations of the game, but at its core all players are trying to beat the dealer. A player wins when they have a hand value of 21 or higher than the dealer’s.
The game begins when the dealer shuffles the cards and then deals two to each player, including themselves. The dealer will then take one of their own cards and turn it face up to reveal its value. The value of the cards in a hand is determined by their rank. Cards 2 to 9 are worth their number, and aces are worth either 1 or 11 points depending on the other cards in the hand.
If a player has an ace and a ten-card, they have a natural (blackjack) and win the hand. The player must then make a decision whether to stand (keep the current hand) or hit (take an additional card). The player may also elect to take insurance, which is a wager that the dealer has a blackjack. The bet is equal to half the original bet and pays 2-1 in the event that the dealer does have a blackjack. Many dealers advise players to take insurance.
Some blackjack games offer side bets that are placed at the same time as a player’s main bet. These bets can be based on the dealer’s up-card, the player’s pair, or other arithmetic calculations. These side bets can add to a player’s winnings, but they should be made with careful consideration. Some of these side bets can be quite costly if the player doesn’t understand the odds of winning.
Despite the wide variety of possible strategies in blackjack, there is a well-known and documented solution that is considered optimal in most situations. This is known as Basic Strategy, and it has been widely accessible to blackjack players since the 1950s. In addition, because of the simplicity of the game, it is easy to categorize departures from optimal play and document them accurately.
This makes it an ideal test case for investigating the impact of expected regret and omission bias. However, it is challenging to apply this methodology in an experimental setting because of the complexity of the task and the need to control for risk aversion. This paper explores these issues by analyzing actual play at a blackjack table in Las Vegas. We find strong evidence of both omission bias and the effect of expected regret on decisions to hit and to stand. This evidence suggests that the house edge in blackjack is greater than might be expected if all players were playing optimally. This is a significant finding that has implications for gambling research more broadly. It also has important implications for the design of casino gambling promotions and advertising. In addition, it supports the notion that omission bias can be reduced by removing uncertainty from the gambling experience. We recommend that casinos should implement this measure.
Blackjack is one of the most popular casino card games. There are many different rules and variations of the game, but at its core all players are trying to beat the dealer. A player wins when they have a hand value of 21 or higher than the dealer’s. The game begins when the dealer shuffles the cards and then deals two to each player, including themselves. The dealer will then take one of their own cards and turn it face up to reveal its value. The value of the cards in a hand is determined by their rank. Cards 2 to 9 are worth their number, and aces are worth either 1 or 11 points depending on the other cards in the hand. If a player has an ace and a ten-card, they have a natural (blackjack) and win the hand. The player must then make a decision whether to stand (keep the current hand) or hit (take an additional card). The player may also elect to take insurance, which is a wager that the dealer has a blackjack. The bet is equal to half the original bet and pays 2-1 in the event that the dealer does have a blackjack. Many dealers advise players to take insurance. Some blackjack games offer side bets that are placed at the same time as a player’s main bet. These bets can be based on the dealer’s up-card, the player’s pair, or other arithmetic calculations. These side bets can add to a player’s winnings, but they should be made with careful consideration. Some of these side bets can be quite costly if the player doesn’t understand the odds of winning. Despite the wide variety of possible strategies in blackjack, there is a well-known and documented solution that is considered optimal in most situations. This is known as Basic Strategy, and it has been widely accessible to blackjack players since the 1950s. In addition, because of the simplicity of the game, it is easy to categorize departures from optimal play and document them accurately. This makes it an ideal test case for investigating the impact of expected regret and omission bias. However, it is challenging to apply this methodology in an experimental setting because of the complexity of the task and the need to control for risk aversion. This paper explores these issues by analyzing actual play at a blackjack table in Las Vegas. We find strong evidence of both omission bias and the effect of expected regret on decisions to hit and to stand. This evidence suggests that the house edge in blackjack is greater than might be expected if all players were playing optimally. This is a significant finding that has implications for gambling research more broadly. It also has important implications for the design of casino gambling promotions and advertising. In addition, it supports the notion that omission bias can be reduced by removing uncertainty from the gambling experience. We recommend that casinos should implement this measure.